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Is The World Going To End?
You now have 24 years left to live!
On April 13, 2029, the asteroid 2004 MN4 will pass within the Earth's orbit by 5.7 Earth radii (36,350 km or 22,600 miles) of the Earth's center - just below the altitude of geosynchronous Earth satellites. The diameter of the object is about 320 meters.
At its closest approach, 2004 MN4 will be visible to the naked eye on non-overcast nights. Daytime visibility will be extremely poor unless the asteroid enters the Earth's atmosphere.
Why Is The World Going To End?
Most of this object's orbit lies within the Earth's orbit, and it approaches the sun almost as close as the orbit of Venus. 2004 MN4's orbital period about the sun is 323 days, placing it within the Aten class of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), which have an orbital period less than one year. It has a low inclination with respect to the Earth's orbit and the asteroid crosses near the Earth's orbit twice on each of its passages about the sun.
The calculation of impact probability involves deep knowledge of orbital dynamics, estimation theory, and numerical analysis. The orbit of a comet or asteroid is determined from a set of observations (right ascension/declination coordinates). The observations are typically accurate to 0.5 arc-sec, although this can vary somewhat according to the pixel size used in the CCD detectors: some observatories have only 1.0 arc-sec accuracy.
Because there are some errors in the observations, there will be uncertainties in the orbital determination for the object. The uncertainty in the orbital elements also depends on the number of observations and the time span over which they are made. The more observations we have, and the longer the time span, the less the uncertainties will be, and the more precise the orbit will become. Thus, for a newly discovered object, the uncertainties tend to be large initially. As more observations are obtained on the object's position, the uncertainties are reduced, and any potential impacts are then eventually eliminated for the vast majority of the cases.
The current impact probability estimate for 2004 MN4 is 1.6e-04, or 1 in 6,250 that a collision will occur.
Is That Serious?
If you are still alive by April 13, 2029 (which is a Friday, by the way), then an asteroid colliding into the Earth might be considered serious. The Torino Impact Hazard Scale is the reference used by NASA's Near Earth Object Program for rating asteroids and comets.
| The Torino Impact Hazard Scale |
No Hazard
(White Zone) |
0 |
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage. |
Normal
(Green Zone) |
1 |
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
Meriting Attention by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone) |
2 |
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
| 3 |
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. |
| 4 |
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. |
Threatening
(Orange Zone) |
5 |
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contigency planning may be warranted. |
| 6 |
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contigency planning may be warranted. |
| 7 |
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecendented but still uncertain threat of a global castastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. |
Certain Collisions
(Red Zone) |
8 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offsore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years. |
| 9 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecendented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years. |
| 10 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often. |
So ... Is The World Going To End?
2004 MN4 currently rates a 1 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Most estimates conclude that the asteroid will not impact Earth. However, smaller probabilities exist where the doomsday path of the asteroid is clearly evident. By summer of 2028, Hollywood, CA will release blockbuster motion pictures depicting the destruction of the Earth and extinction of mankind.
Is the world going to end? The overall consensus of our world's leading expert astronomers is ... maybe.
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