Friday, December 24, 2004

Something to worry about

The Instapundit reports: <

MORE to worry about: "So, in summary, there's a 1-in-233 chance of the worst disaster in recorded history happening on April 13, 2029, and a 232-in-233 chance of nothing happening. Have a nice day!"


But it gets worse. The odds have been updated and now the odds are 1 in 62.5.  A little math is needed to calculate it. The chances of a collision is given in the chart at 1.6-e2 or .016 the inverse of this (1/.016) = 1 in 62.5 chances.  25 years doesn't seem so far away as it used to.

1 Comments:

On Saturday, 25 December, 2004, Jay said...

Great catch! Notwithstanding that I blog about this stuff all the time, you're how I found out about this one.

Remarkably, it's the first asteroid to exceed 1 on the Torino scale, and it went all the way up to 4 (out of 10).

 

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